We are a small Episcopal Church on the banks of the Rappahannock in Port Royal, Virginia. We acknowledge that we gather on the traditional land of the first people of Port Royal, the Nandtaughtacund, and we respect and honor with gratitude the land itself, the legacy of the ancestors, and the life of the Rappahannock Tribe. Our mission statement is to do God’s Will in all that we do.

Season of Creation – The “Beautiful Bill” and Climate’s Future

I. Executive Summary

President Trump’s signing of the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” on July 4, 2025, represents a significant setback for U.S. clean energy and climate policy, largely repealing or diluting the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). While the legislation is projected to increase U.S. climate pollution and utility costs, it also reveals a nuanced landscape where some clean energy incentives were preserved due to their economic benefits. Globally, the U.S. has ceded its climate leadership, but other major players like China and the EU are accelerating their decarbonization efforts, driven by economic and geopolitical factors. The overall sentiment is that while the bill is a “gut punch” to climate action, it will not completely halt the global or even the U.S. transition to clean energy, with states, cities, and market forces continuing to drive progress.

II. Key Themes and Facts

A. Devastating Impact on U.S. Clean Energy and Emissions

  • Repeal/Dilution of IRA: The “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) “effectively repeals or dilutes much of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act,” which was the “first significant federal action by the United States designed to try to address rising global temperatures.” (Canary Media, Time, Washington Post, Project Drawdown)
  • Increased Emissions and Costs: The legislation is “expected to have a devastating effect on the development of clean energy, increasing utility costs and worsening climate change as a result.” (Canary Media) Rapid analysis suggests a “flatlining in emissions in the years to come,” in “sharp contrast to a steep decline that would have happened if policies enacted under Biden had stayed in place.” (Time)
  • Loss of Renewable Capacity: Modeling by Princeton University suggests that “roughly 140 gigawatts of solar power and 160 GW of onshore wind that were projected to come online over the next decade will be lost.” (Washington Post) New solar capacity will likely be cut in half, and wind power fares even worse. (Time) This setback comes as energy demand surges due to AI and data centers, leading to “more strain on the power grid and some $50 billion a year in higher energy costs for households and businesses by 2035.” (Washington Post)
  • Specific Program Cuts/Phase-outs:Solar and Wind: Projects must start service by the end of 2027 to access 45Y or 48E production and investment tax credits. Projects starting construction after this calendar year face “burdensome ‘foreign entity of concern’ provisions that tax experts have said are unworkable.” (Canary Media)
  • Efficiency: Tax credits for energy-efficient home improvements are only available for projects finished before the end of 2025. Commercial building incentives require construction start by June 30, 2026. (Canary Media)
  • EVs: “The most aggressive phaseout in the legislation,” tax credits for new or used clean-vehicle purchases and clean commercial vehicles end after Sept. 30, 2025. Charging station credits expire June 30, 2026. (Canary Media) A proposal for an annual EV/hybrid registration fee did not make the final bill. (Canary Media)
  • Hydrogen: 45V clean-hydrogen tax credits expire on Jan. 1, 2028, a slight win as the House version had them dead by end of 2025. (Canary Media)
  • Repealed IRA Funding: Unobligated IRA funding was repealed for numerous offices and programs, including the Loan Programs Office, Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, decarbonizing federal buildings, low-carbon materials in transportation infrastructure, grants for emissions-reduction plans, methane emissions reduction programs, transmission development (offshore wind), tribal energy loans, and clean heavy-duty vehicles. (Canary Media)
  • Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment Program: Modified to remove emissions reduction requirements, prioritizing “known or forecastable electric supply” (fossil fuels) and adding $1 billion. (Canary Media)
  • Total Emissions Increase: The Princeton analysis suggests the new bill “will increase climate pollution by roughly 2 billion tons over the next decade — equivalent to an additional year and a half of emissions from the existing U.S. power sector.” (Washington Post)

B. Nuances and Preserved Incentives: “When it Pays Off”

  • Economic Benefits Drive Republican Support: Despite initial united Republican opposition to the IRA, “key clean energy provisions… were preserved.” (Washington Post) This preservation “depended entirely on Republican support.” (Washington Post) “43 Republican House members and nearly a dozen Republican senators publicly voiced support for one or more clean energy tax credits” due to “hundreds of billions of dollars in investments — and millions of jobs — that their states stood to gain from clean energy.” (Washington Post) As Nathaniel Keohane states, “Republicans showed they support clean energy policies that have economic benefits — as many of them do.” (Washington Post)
  • Preserved Credits/Provisions:Nuclear, Hydropower, Geothermal: Can tap incentives if construction starts by 2033. (Canary Media) Enhanced geothermal and factory-built “small modular” nuclear reactors are highlighted as promising. (Washington Post)
  • Carbon Capture: Incentives for carbon capture “survived” and the “per ton value of some credits actually increasing.” (Time) This is seen as a divergence from the global trend toward renewables. (Time)
  • Advanced Manufacturing: Credits for manufacturing batteries and other advanced technologies were “largely preserved,” fostering innovation and jobs in the U.S. (Washington Post)
  • Transferability: Tax credit transferability, an IRA provision allowing developers to sell tax credits, was “left untouched” in the final bill, despite the House version eliminating it for some credits. (Canary Media)
  • Reasons for Partial Preservation: “Where the focus was on local benefits rather than ideology, clean energy proponents had a strong hand to play.” (Washington Post) The solar and wind provisions “dramatically improved in the final bill from earlier versions, thanks to a last-minute stand from Senate champions.” (Washington Post)

C. Shift in Global Climate Leadership

  • U.S. Cedes Leadership: The U.S. “has ceded its place at the center of the climate ecosystem—a position that would be difficult to regain as it makes long-term decisions that prioritize fossil fuels.” (Time) This pullback is “now solidified into federal law.” (Time)
  • Global Progress Continues Independently: “The rest of the world continues working to decarbonize” and is “not sitting still.” (Time, Project Drawdown)
  • EU Ambition: The European Union announced a “new 2040 emissions reduction target with greater ambition than earlier goals.” (Time)
  • Emerging Markets: Leaders of emerging market countries gathered in Rio de Janeiro, with the “biggest challenge for emissions will be to tackle rising energy demand in emerging markets.” (Time)
  • China’s Dominance: China has developed a “world-leading electric vehicle manufacturing industry” and is the “world’s leading auto exporter.” It also remains the “undisputed leader in renewable technology manufacturing,” controlling “at least 60% of global manufacturing capacity for solar panels, wind turbine systems and batteries.” The cost of battery technology continues to decline in China. (Time) This manufacturing dominance means “tighter economic ties between China and countries in virtually every corner of the globe.” (Time)
  • “Fractured Geopolitical Landscape” as Tailwind: The geopolitical landscape, “which began before Trump’s second term but has only worsened since January, is also a tailwind to global clean energy development.” Countries are looking to “rely less on oil and gas imports,” making renewable energy an “affordable source of domestic energy production.” (Time)
  • New Coordination Mechanisms: Brazil’s foreign minister suggests that existing institutions will “not suffice” for coordination among like-minded countries, implying the “environmental agenda will emerge through other arrangements,” likely excluding the U.S. (Time)

D. Resilience of Clean Energy Transition Beyond Federal Policy

  • Market Forces and Economics: “Solar energy is now the fastest-growing energy source in human history, growing at 20%-30% annually.” (Project Drawdown) Clean energy technologies (solar, wind, battery storage, LEDs, heat pumps, EVs) are “getting better, cheaper and easier to build every year.” (Project Drawdown) “Economics are shifting, and clean energy is gaining momentum over fossil fuels. The smart money is on green energy, which is why investors and businesses continue to put their money there.” (Project Drawdown)
  • Subnational Action: “The federal government doesn’t have a monopoly on climate action, and there are many pathways still available to building a better future.” (Project Drawdown) “Cities, states and public utility commissions play in advancing climate action.” (Project Drawdown.pdf) Many states like California and Minnesota are “pioneers in clean energy through their ambitious investments and policies.” (Project Drawdown)
  • Past Progress as Precedent: U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have declined by roughly 20% since their peak in 2007, while the economy nearly doubled, demonstrating progress without solely federal leadership. (Project Drawdown)
  • Optimistic Outlook: Despite the setback, the long-term future of energy in the U.S. “will ultimately be green.” (Project Drawdown) “Clean energy will eventually be an unstoppable force in the market.” (Project Drawdown) “We can still make meaningful strides on climate change.” (Project Drawdown) “It’s not game over. It’s game on.” (Project Drawdown)

III. Conclusion

The “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” represents a significant retreat by the U.S. federal government from its climate commitments, with dire projections for emissions and clean energy development. However, the analysis reveals a complex picture. The economic benefits of certain clean energy technologies prompted Republican support for their preservation, indicating a potential pathway for future climate policy based on tangible local economic advantages. Crucially, the global climate movement is not slowing down; other nations, particularly China and the EU, are accelerating their decarbonization efforts, driven by their own economic and geopolitical interests. Furthermore, market forces, technological advancements, and subnational actions (states, cities, businesses, investors) are expected to continue driving the clean energy transition, suggesting that while the federal setback is significant, it is not an insurmountable obstacle to broader climate progress.